With just two weeks left before Election Day, the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be one of the most expensive and consequential in modern history — and for millions of American families already stretched thin by high prices, tariffs, and the cost of everyday life, the results could determine who actually speaks for them in Washington. From deep-red Mississippi to the battlegrounds of Michigan and Ohio, races once thought to be settled are now wide open, fueled by billions in outside money and a national mood that forecasters say is turning against the party in power.
Election Forecasters Shift Key Senate Races
The Cook Political Report, one of the most closely watched election forecasting agencies in the country, reshuffled its ratings for three Senate contests on Tuesday. Two races moved in Democrats’ favor — and one shifted toward Republicans.
In South Carolina, the race moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” as GOP nominee Darline Graham — who replaced her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the ticket — has struggled to consolidate Republican support against Democrat Annie Andrews.
In Mississippi, the race went from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” as Democratic challenger Scott Colom has put incumbent GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith under growing pressure. Colom recently turned heads by hammering Hyde-Smith’s suggestion that consumers should “pick another protein” in response to sky-high beef prices — a line that quickly spawned the campaign slogan “pick another Senator.” The Senate Majority PAC, closely aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, announced it would launch a $1.2 million TV and digital ad campaign in Mississippi, calling it a sign the landscape has become “treacherous” for Republicans even in states Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024.
On the other side of the ledger, Minnesota’s Senate race shifted from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat,” as Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s campaign has caused anxiety among state party officials. One state Democratic official, speaking to CNN, described the race as “far too close for comfort” — and Republican Michelle Tafoya outraised Flanagan in the third quarter.
A Billion-Dollar Battle Funded by the Ultrawealthy
The staggering cost of this election cycle is being driven in large part by billionaire megadonors on both sides. More than $11 billion in ad spending is projected by Election Day — a new record — and the final weeks are seeing a flood of cash into key battleground states that will decide control of Congress.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk has contributed at least $276 million to Republicans, with more than $150 million targeting the Texas Senate race alone. On the Democratic side, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced plans to spend $80 million supporting Democrats between September and Election Day. Bloomberg’s longtime political adviser Howard Wolfson told CNN that
“money is not determinative, but it is helpful.”
Wolfson also noted that
“Republicans have a significant monetary advantage,”
but that Bloomberg is
“glad to be able to do his part.”
Bloomberg’s $80 million includes $50 million for the House battle, with $24 million going through Everytown for Gun Safety and $16 million through House Majority PAC. The New York Times first reported his spending plans.
Venture capital co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz gave $50 million to a super PAC called Leading The Future, aimed at shaping artificial intelligence policy. OpenAI president Greg Brockman and his wife Anna chipped in another $25 million. And Google co-founder Sergey Brin has poured over $100 million into defeating a California wealth tax ballot initiative — one of the more direct examples of billionaires using their fortunes to protect their own financial interests through political spending.
The Republican National Committee also announced it has deployed over $50 million to help midterm candidates, boosted by a recent Supreme Court ruling that lifted limits on how much parties could spend in coordination with campaigns. Of that total, $44 million went to Senate and House Republican campaign arms, and $5 million went to an ad buy specifically for Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said the committee is
“deploying it aggressively and strategically to directly benefit our candidates when and where it has the highest impact, giving Republicans the hard dollar edge in key battleground races across the country.”
A review of AdImpact data for the final two weeks shows more than $300 million pouring into the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. Ohio, Texas, and Iowa — all states Trump won comfortably in 2024 — are absorbing the largest shares. Kansas, once an afterthought, has emerged as a late-breaking battleground, with outside money flooding in.
Trump Uses Rally Stage — and the Federal Checkbook — to Boost Republicans
President Trump has been crisscrossing red states in his closing campaign push, while also announcing a series of financial packages that critics say are timed to benefit Republican candidates rather than the families in need. At a rally in Kansas for GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, Trump unveiled an $8 billion farm relief plan to help offset high diesel and fertilizer costs — costs that have been driven up in part by his own tariffs. This follows a $12 billion farm aid package announced last December.
Trump has also held White House events with vulnerable GOP senators from Alaska and Iowa, making major promises of investment for their states. He previously floated giving $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans hold Congress — a promise that raised widespread skepticism. And his administration admitted in court that it awarded grants “based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state.”
On Truth Social, Trump pledged to spend more than $400 million by Election Day, citing the unrest in France as a warning about what could happen in the US if Democrats win.
“Because of my belief in the Republican Party, and all of our Policies and Principles, and especially after witnessing what is taking place in France, and other locations throughout Europe, I am pleased to announce that, having to do with the Most Important Midterm Elections in our Country’s History, I have spent, or will be spending, over 400 Million Dollars by Election Day,”
he wrote. At the Kansas rally the night before, Trump told the crowd:
“If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what’s happening in France — a once great nation that is being conquered, looted and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists and communists who hate Christianity and they hate, frankly, the Western civilization itself.”
The pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. reported more than $400 million in cash on hand at the end of August and has fueled a massive cash advantage for the GOP, though analysts note the spending has so far failed to significantly shift the party’s political fortunes.
Kitchen-Table Issues Drive Voter Decisions
Across battleground states, voters are telling pollsters and reporters the same thing: they’re worried about their bills. In Kansas — one of the most unexpected Senate battlegrounds in decades — one woman told CNN the cost of living is the single biggest factor driving her vote. Farming communities have been particularly hard hit by rising input costs tied to tariffs and the Iran war.
In Michigan, the two Senate candidates laid out starkly different economic visions at a Detroit Economic Club forum. Republican Mike Rogers argued Michigan should return to defense manufacturing — ships, submarine parts, drones, and planes — saying,
“We have the technology, we have the people, we have the know-how. It just takes somebody to put the right people in the room to get it done. That’s what I’m going to do. That’ll get our wages up.”
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed pushed back on the idea of subsidizing large corporations, saying,
“The paradigm of economic development that tells us that we can subsidize or cut tax breaks for huge corporations to give us 500 jobs that never really materialized — I think that has to end.”
El-Sayed called for more union support and small business investment, warning that
“if you don’t invest on the landing and you just invest in skills, what you’re doing is you’re creating very, very marketable young talent that goes somewhere else.”
The fight for control of the Senate is being decided largely in states where working-class voters are most exposed to the economic pressures of the past two years — and both parties are spending tens of millions to earn their trust.
Historical Headwinds Against the President’s Party
History is not on the GOP’s side. The president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections. In the last 100 years, there have been only two exceptions: 2002, in the aftermath of 9/11, and 1998, when a booming economy and public backlash to the Clinton impeachment spared Democrats. During Trump’s first midterm in 2018, Republicans lost 41 seats and control of the House.
According to recent polls, Democrats hold close to a 10-point advantage when voters are asked which party they prefer for Congress. CNN’s latest Poll of Polls puts Trump’s approval rating at just 34% among US adults, with 65% disapproving. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently rates 10 Republican-held House seats as leaning or likely to flip Democratic, meaning Democrats may need to win only a handful of tossup seats to claim the House majority. CNN’s What Matters newsletter has more on how these dynamics are playing out nationally.
Key Races to Watch
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a narrow edge over Republican Jon Husted, 49% to 44%, in a CNN Poll of Polls average of four recent surveys of likely voters. Polls from NYT/Siena and Marist College show the race within the margin of error, while surveys from CNN and Bowling Green State University/YouGov give Brown the lead. All four polls show Trump’s approval rating underwater among likely voters in the state.
In North Carolina, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper — who has never lost an election across six statewide races — leads Republican Michael Whatley, Trump’s handpicked nominee, in both polling and fundraising. Major GOP outside groups have scaled back their spending in the state, while Democrats appear to have the upper hand in ad buys. Whatley has leaned hard into his loyalty to Trump, saying at a rally last month,
“I’m still with that guy!”
Meanwhile, Trump is scheduled to rally in Greenville for Whatley — his second North Carolina trip in just over a month. Early voting data from the state shows registered Democrats have cast more than twice the ballots of registered Republicans so far, with overall turnout running nearly 38% higher than at the same point in 2022.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is leading Republican John E. Sununu in a recent New York Times poll. Sununu has been working to distance himself from Trump in a new TV ad, saying,
“The way Chris Pappas tells it, I’m President Trump’s long-lost son. I’ve never even met the man.”
Pappas responded on X that he also had not met Trump, adding,
“I know New Hampshire is paying the price for his incompetence and corruption.”
Former VP Kamala Harris is expected to campaign in the state Saturday for Pappas. Democrat Cinde Warmington, running for governor, announced Harris’s endorsement in a post on X.
In Montana, Democratic House candidate Sam Forstag — a first-time candidate, labor leader, and wildfire smokejumper — has been running a populist campaign that has forced Republicans to spend time and money defending an open seat. When asked about GOP attacks on transgender issues, Forstag told CNN’s Dana Bash,
“What I oppose is the government sticking its nose into private personal decisions.”
He added:
“We don’t have to throw our friends under the bus to win elections. We just have to be real straightforward about what we’re fighting for.”
In Michigan, El-Sayed released a new video embracing his Muslim faith as a core part of his identity. A separate ad featuring his grandparents responding to Trump calling him a communist drew wide attention — the grandparents simply replied,
“Communists? We’re Presbyterian.”
In Ohio’s governor’s race, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has spent over $120 million — more than triple his opponent’s total — but polls still show a tight race against Democratic challenger Amy Acton. Read the full story here.
Nationally, more than 10 million ballots have already been cast as early voting expands across dozens of states. Five more states — Hawaii, Louisiana, Missouri, Utah, and Wisconsin — opened in-person early voting on Tuesday. Follow early voting data with CNN’s tracker.
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